Forecasting Your CoS Needs: Defined vs Undefined and Annual Planning

Forecasting Your CoS Needs: Defined vs Undefined and Annual Planning is about more than simply counting Certificates of Sponsorship or filling in boxes on the SMS. It is a practice of foresight, rhythm, and organisation — anticipating the needs of your workforce while keeping the machinery of compliance humming smoothly. For every HR manager or sponsor licence holder, thinking ahead ensures that recruitment, onboarding, and administrative processes align, reducing last-minute stress and creating a seamless experience for both the organisation and the people you bring on board.

Here, we will consider the principles of planning and forecasting Certificates of Sponsorship (CoS), presenting a structured approach to differentiating between defined and undefined CoS, and the role of an annual calendar in coordinating staffing, recruitment cycles, and reporting workflows. It is intended not merely as a checklist of obligations, but as a framework to instil confidence, promote organisational order, and ensure clarity throughout the sponsorship process.

Understanding Defined vs Undefined CoS

Before you can plan effectively, you must understand how the two types of CoS are distinguished and when each applies.

• A Defined CoS is required when a sponsored worker will apply from outside the UK (entry clearance) under the Skilled Worker route.
• An Undefined CoS is used for those currently in the UK (for example, switching status or extending) or for other sponsored worker routes and does not require a specific request each time, assuming you hold an allocation.
• The guidance emphasises that using the wrong type of CoS (assigning an Undefined where a Defined is required or vice versa) is a compliance risk.
• Defined CoS requests must be made through the SMS and approved by UKVI before assignment.
• For Undefined CoS, your organisation must estimate needs, hold an allocation, and if you run out, you apply to increase via SMS.

Thus, in your planning, defined vs undefined CoS planning is crucial: you must forecast both how many overseas hires you will bring in (requiring Defined CoS) and how many internal or switch‑roles/UK-based hires (requiring Undefined CoS), plus the timing for each.

Estimating CoS Volumes: A Practical Approach

Forecasting CoS volumes isn’t guesswork; it involves analysing recruitment pipelines, retention data, turnover, and future growth plans. Here’s how to approach it:

1. Review your upcoming vacancies
   Map your likely vacancies for the coming year. Which roles will require overseas recruitment (triggering Defined CoS)? Which roles will be filled internally or via switching (Undefined CoS)?
2. Calculate expected overseas hiring
   For each role where you intend to hire from outside the UK, count 1 CoS needed. You may also allocate a buffer for unexpected needs.
3. Estimate internal/switch needs
   For roles where candidates are already in the UK (already on e.g. Graduate route, or switching to Skilled Worker), you will assign from your Undefined allocation. Estimate by looking at past year usage and applying the growth rate.
4. Factor in retention and turnover
   If existing sponsored workers are likely to leave or move, you may need replacement CoS assignments. Factor in attrition.
5. Requesting additional allocation
   If your forecasted Undefined CoS demand exceeds your annual allocation, you must apply via SMS to increase your allocation. Ensure sufficient lead time.
6. Align with lead times & start dates
   For Defined CoS, you must consider visa processing time, overseas recruitment, and relocation logistics. Plan start‑dates back from when the worker needs to be in post.

Timing Defined CoS for Overseas Hires

Timing is everything when it comes to Defined CoS. Here are key considerations:

• Submit the Defined CoS request via SMS once the role is finalised, but before assigning it to the worker. The request is processed by UKVI.
• Once approved, assign the CoS to the worker, and the worker must apply for entry clearance within the validity window.
• Leave‑to‑enter applications may require documentation and processing; delays can occur. Plan for buffer time.
• Coordinate the role start date carefully to ensure compliance and avoid gaps.
• Ensure your internal recruitment and budgeting timelines are built around these administrative lead times.

SMS Processes as of 2025

You must be familiar with the current processes in the Sponsorship Management System (SMS) as of October 2025:

• For Defined CoS: Use SMS Manual 12: “Defined certificate of sponsorship” for the detailed process of application, viewing, and withdrawing.
• For Undefined CoS: Use SMS Manual 8: “Creating and assigning CoS” for internal issuance when you have allocation.
• In SMS, you can create batches of CoS if multiple roles have identical job details.
• Ensure you correctly select the route (Skilled Worker, Temporary Worker) when creating the CoS and fill mandatory fields carefully.
• Maintain records of each CoS issuance: job role, SOC code, start date, salary, etc – these are required under guidance.

Tips for Effective CoS Forecasting & Planning

• Maintain a rolling forecast: Review and update your CoS needs quarterly, based on actual usage, upcoming vacancies and business changes.
• Buffer for defined roles: Overseas recruits often come with relocation delays; plan at least 3–4 months lead time.
• Monitor your allocation: Especially for Undefined CoS, keep an eye on how many remain and trigger early allocation requests.
• Link recruitment and immigration teams: Ensure your HR, talent acquisition and immigration compliance teams coordinate so job adverts, offer letters, and CoS requests align.
• Budget for fees and immigration charges: CoS assignments involve fees and sometimes sector-specific charges; forecast accordingly.
• Document the rationale: When requesting more CoS or setting forecasting numbers, maintain internal rationale – this helps in future compliance reviews.
• Use hiring calendar to spread demand: Avoid clustering large numbers of CoS requests in a short period; smooth demand across the year.

Closing Thoughts!

Planning your CoS needs is not simply a box-ticking exercise; it is a strategic function of workforce planning, immigration compliance and organisational readiness. Understanding defined vs undefined CoS planning means you can forecast accurately, align recruitment timelines, and avoid unnecessary delay or risk.

By building a calendar, aligning your vacancies with administrative lead times, integrating your SMS processes, and reviewing needs on a regular basis, your organisation positions itself to sponsor effectively and compliantly. With the right internal systems in place, CoS forecasting becomes not a headache but a seamless part of your hiring rhythm.

Follow Sponsor Licence Hub for further guidance, updates and best practice tools on navigating the sponsor‑licence landscape with confidence.